Co-sponsored by the Clausen Center for International Business and Policy and presented as part of the Berkeley Haas "New Thinking in a Pandemic" series

The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented shutdown of the global economy. Governments (mostly in advanced economies) responded with an array of programs, from increased unemployment benefits, stimulus payments, small business assistance loans, and broad monetary support. In spite of these unprecedented interventions, all financed by a rapid expansion of public debt, the economic outlook continues to be very uncertain nearly nine months into the pandemic. What are the likely near- and long-term consequences of the pandemic for the global economy? Which populations have been most affected? Which industries are likely to recover, and which will not? How should we evaluate the success of economic measures taken by governments in the U.S. and around the world?

Co-sponsored by the Clausen Center for International Business and Policy — and presented as part of the Berkeley Haas "New Thinking in a Pandemic" series — this “Matrix on Point” will bring together a panel of scholars to discuss the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

About the Speakers

Mitu Gulati, Professor of Law at Duke University, is a scholar who writes in several fields, including contract law, sovereign debt, judicial behavior, law firm dynamics, and the study of race and gender disparities. His work uses a range of research techniques (qualitative, quantitative and historical). Gulati’s work on contract law asks the fundamental question of whether the terms of contracts among sophisticated parties come anywhere close to the model of fully informed and sophisticated contract drafting that judges and lawyers often assume exists. In particular, he has extensively studied the topic of “contract stickiness,” where contract terms continue to be used from contract to contract even when they are not the terms the parties would choose if starting from scratch. Gulati has addressed complex and technical issues regarding the sovereign debt pricing and restructuring, as well as questions concerning whether countries should pay for the debts of former despotic leaders after the despots have been overthrown.

Hilary Hoynes, Professor of Economics and Public Policy, holds the Haas Distinguished Chair in Economic Disparities at UC Berkeley and co-directs the Berkeley Opportunity Lab. Her research focuses on poverty, inequality, food and nutrition programs, and the impacts of government tax and transfer programs on low income families. She is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the National Academy of Social Insurance, and a Fellow of the Society of Labor Economists. She has served as Co-Editor of the American Economic Review and the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. She currently serves on the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Building an Agenda to Reduce the Number of Children in Poverty by Half in 10 Years. 

Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan is the Neil Moskowitz Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of Maryland. She is co-editor of the Journal of International Economics; associate editor of the American Economic Review; and associate editor of the Journal of European Economic Association. Among her recent publications is a paper, co-authored with Thomas Drechsel, entitled “Are Standard Macro and Credit Policies Enough to Deal with the Economic Fallout from a Global Pandemic? A Proposal for a Negative SME Tax,” which argues for direct cash transfers to businesses, implemented via a negative tax.

Maurice Obstfeld is the Class of 1958 Professor of Economics at Berkeley and a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. His research focuses on the global economy. In 2014-2015 he was a Member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, and from 2015-2018 he served as chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. Professor Obstfeld is a Fellow of the Econometric Society and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He is active as a research fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (moderator) is Professor of Economics in the UC Berkeley Department of Economics; and S.K. and Angela Chan Professor of Global Management in the Haas School of Business. He also serves as Faculty Director of the Clausen Center for International Business and Policy. He is the Director of the International Finance and Macroeconomics program at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a Research Fellow of the Center for Economic Policy Research (London). He is also co-editor of the American Economic Review. He is the winner of the 2007 Bernacer Prize for best European Economist under 40 working in macroeconomics and finance, and winner of the 2008 prize for best French economist under 40. In 2012-13, he served on the Council of Economic Advisors to the French prime minister.

Photo by Anastasiia Chepinska on Unsplash